There is an 80% chance that global temperatures will break at least one annual heat record within the next five years, raising risks of extreme droughts, floods, and wildfires.
For the first time, data also suggest a small likelihood—about 1%—that before 2030 the world could experience a year 2°C hotter than preindustrial levels, a scenario once thought impossible in such a short timeframe.
The latest update highlights intensifying threats to health, economies, and ecosystems unless dependence on coal, oil, gas, and deforestation is curbed. It projects a 70% chance that average warming between 2025 and 2029 will exceed 1.5°C, bringing the planet close to breaching widely accepted climate thresholds.
The probability of surpassing 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years is estimated at 86%, up from 40% just a few years ago. Last year, the threshold was breached on an annual basis for the first time, marking the hottest year in the observational record.
Arctic winters are predicted to warm more than three times faster than the global average, while other regions face worsening droughts or heavier rainfall. Scientists stress urgent emission cuts, warning that 1.5°C is not inevitable.